Farewell to unemployment rate. Dove signs from a larger dataset

Following some influent FOMC members, I believe Janet Yellen will spend a good part of her first press conference trying to explain FOMC´s brand new forward guidance. Last week, New York Fed released a new set of charts measuring various dimensions of the labor market.

The problem here is related to the difficulty to communicate based on 34 series. If FOMC chooses this way, it will come back to some kind of qualitative forward guidance. But the committee also has the option to consolidate all the information contained in the dataset (Bank of England did something likethis, calling this consolidated information output gap).

I´m not sure what option they will choose. But if they decide for consolidation, they might find a very dove sign. At least this is the message passed by the principal component (PC) of this dataset, showed in figure 1. As we can see, PC suggests that there´s much more slack in US labor market than we can conclude focusing only on unemployment rate.