EM governments have been accumulating reserves and running down their hard currency liabilities for a decade. This dimished currency mismatch is healthy and provides insurance against shocks.
Now, the story I heard is this: recently, the private sector in these very same countries have been increasing its indebtness abroad, taking advantage of ultra-low interest rates in the developed world. That being true, and since I read this in a paper from the BIS it is likely to be true, the depreciation movement taking place now may mean real trouble down the road.
Dudu, Do you mean that Net Foreign Liabilities are increasing as a proportion of GDP?
ReplyDeleteQuando falam que as empresas devem x bilhões, isso é a posição líquidas dela ?
ReplyDeleteAcho que o paper citado e' esse aqui: https://www.bis.org/publ/work441.pdf
ReplyDeleteEsse do Shin apresentado no Fed de Sao Francisco e' bem interessante tambem: http://www.princeton.edu/~hsshin/www/FRBSF_2013.pdf
Tambem li esse paper do Turner essa semana..
ReplyDeleteImo o ponto é quem tem receita em USD dentre essas corps emergentes e quem nao tem. Empresas como Vale, Petbra, não me parecem tão expostas quanto outras que tem menos envolvimento no mercado ext.
Apollo Creed
Genta.made me read this boring paper. Didn't like it at all.
ReplyDeleteIvan Drago