Was there,
today. Tomatos, electric energy, primary surplus. Boring stuff, as usual. My
impression is that 2014 consensus is something like: (a) 1.5% growth and, (b) 6.5%
inflation (but few explicitly state their inflation forecast, and prefer to say
it is around 6%)
Putting a
lot of effort, I would describe three groups of people.
i)
Those
that are focusing on the unemployment series. Believe labor market is extremely
tight and only becomes more tight. Impossible to grow or reduce inflation.
ii)
Those
who believe low growth will create idle capacity. Gap is zero now, but will
become negative and help inflation, pero no mucho
iii)
Those
crazy, me included, with weird opinions. In my case, the impression that output
gap is already negative, but recent employment recovery (CAGED series) suggests
output gap is closing. Other fellow saying hot weather will help growth due to
icecream sales.
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