In the figure the growth contribution of change in inventories, which I used to run a simple ARMA, and got an effect of -0.5pp. The weather effect of -0.5pp is Goldman's estimation, which seems a bit exaggerated. (Perhaps those guys are so used to endogenous variables they get embarrassed when this is not the case).
Weird thing is my GDP tracking is suggesting Q1 could growth be only 1%. This is pretty low, and cannot be explained by weather and inventories. Maybe a reason to tactically reduce risk.
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