Figures (from LCA, no, I didn't ask for permission), show (i) unemployment, (ii) real wage, (iii) inflation, (iv) employment
Two interpretations
1) Unemployment is falling due to
participation rate which, in its turn, can be explained by the FIES (student
financing program). Labor market is really getting tighter, and the real wage
confirms it.
2) Employment series indicates labor
market got much softer during the last six months (now it is actually beginning
to recover). Real wage dropped in mid 2013 because inflation increased, now we
are seeing the reverse.
I know you like (1). But (2) is the right answer
#2. Definitely!
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