Thursday, February 20, 2014

Brazuca Labor Report

Figures (from LCA, no, I didn't ask for permission), show (i) unemployment, (ii) real wage, (iii) inflation, (iv) employment

Two interpretations
1)      Unemployment is falling due to participation rate which, in its turn, can be explained by the FIES (student financing program). Labor market is really getting tighter, and the real wage confirms it.
2)      Employment series indicates labor market got much softer during the last six months (now it is actually beginning to recover). Real wage dropped in mid 2013 because inflation increased, now we are seeing the reverse.
I know you like (1). But (2) is the right answer

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