Prices, we know, so far supported the Cariocas. But I would say there is even more to it. My recent talks with gringos indicate they also became pessimistic with Brazil, converging and accepting Cariocas' views. Only weird thing is that they still seem to believe Dilma will become more pro-market, and do some fiscal adjustment after the election. If they keep believing this, elections should be good time to sell Brazil.
Monday, February 3, 2014
Cariocas 1 x 0 Gringos
During 2013 there was a stark contrast bw cariocas' and gringos' opinions about Brazil. Cariocas were very pessimistic, and were looking at how much Brazil got worse during the last couple years (a time series comparison). They would pay rates, sell BRL and Ibov. Gringos would say Brazil was a lot better then South Africa, Turkey, etc. (a cross section comparison). They didn't see a smoking gun, and received rates, sometimes with no FX hedge.
Prices, we know, so far supported the Cariocas. But I would say there is even more to it. My recent talks with gringos indicate they also became pessimistic with Brazil, converging and accepting Cariocas' views. Only weird thing is that they still seem to believe Dilma will become more pro-market, and do some fiscal adjustment after the election. If they keep believing this, elections should be good time to sell Brazil.
Prices, we know, so far supported the Cariocas. But I would say there is even more to it. My recent talks with gringos indicate they also became pessimistic with Brazil, converging and accepting Cariocas' views. Only weird thing is that they still seem to believe Dilma will become more pro-market, and do some fiscal adjustment after the election. If they keep believing this, elections should be good time to sell Brazil.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment