I thought that the concessions program going ahead -- as it is -- confidence would return, even if modestly, to the brazilian entrepreneurial sector. It did not. Investment plummeted in the second semester, and did not recover.
This suggests the government managed to do great harm to investors' animal spirits with its "new macro matrix" which came accompanied by unprecedented micro interferience (including here public credit and its attendant misallocation of capital). At this juncture, my call is that nothing other than a thorough change in command can revert this dullness.
Unfortunately, this looks unlikely.
Happy 2019!
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